Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Storage in Northwestern Tunisia: Control of Rhyzopertha dominica by Aeration

This study focuses on the assessment of impact climate change efficiency ambient air aeration and dynamics Rhyzopertha dominica, which is a major pest that infests wheat stored in Tunisia. To project future conditions for period 2041–2070, two models, namely MPI-ESM1.2 CNRMCM5.1, were used under representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 RCP8.5). The examined historical projected feasibility six natural regions located northwestern Tunisia, where main crop, investigated potential consequences R. dominica. Using heat mass transfer model an unaerated silo, temperature moisture distributions grain to predict development, reproduction, survival results revealed decline favorable hours due change, resulting average reduction 25% across regions. aerated could significantly affect effectiveness as means control. mean difference comparisons, based Tukey’s honestly significant (HSD) test, effect developmental parameters dominica 2041–2070 compared 1970–1997. According insect dynamic model, scenarios are expected induce changes development duration, rates predicts (i) 10–15% extension (ii) 20–30% decrease (iii) 5–10% relative period. These underscore critical importance implementing adaptive management strategies wheat.